CURRENCY HIGHLIGHTS – October 2018
Currency pair EUR/USD ends the trading week near the area of 1.1580 and continues to move within the downward channel. At the moment, we should expect an attempt to test the resistance area near the level of 1.1655. Where is the expected rebound and the continuation of the fall of the euro dollar with a potential goal below the level of 1.1245.
In favor of reducing the EUR/USD currency pair at Forex will be a test of the trend line on the relative strength index (RSI). Cancellation of the option of falling quotations of the pair in the current trading week of October 15 — 19, 2018 will be a strong growth and a breakdown of the level of 1.1780, which will indicate that the resistance area is broken down and the pair continues to grow to the area above the level of 1.2050. With the breakdown of the area of support and closing of quotes below the level of 1.1400, we should expect confirmation of the development of the downward trend in the pair.
Currency pair GBP/USD closes the trading week near the area of 1.3005. The pair continues to move in a bearish trend. At this point, we should expect an attempt to continue growth and test the resistance area near the level of 1.3250. Further, the continued decline in quotations of the Pound/Dollar in the area below the level of 1.2520.
In favor of the fall of the British Pound will perform a test of the resistance area on the indicator of relative strength index (RSI). The cancellation of the GBP/USD fall in the current trading week on October 1 — 5, 2018 will result in a strong growth and breakdown of the 1.3400 area, which will indicate the breakdown of the upper border of the channel and the continuation of growth to the area above the level of 1.3750. A confirmation of the GBP/USD decline will be the breakdown of the support area and the closing below the level of 1.2900.
Fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may curb the recent selloff in USD/JPY as the Retail Sales report is anticipated to show a 0.6% rise in household spending, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes due out on October 17 may ultimately boost the appeal of the dollar as the central bank appears to be on track to deliver another rate-hike in 2018.
A marked pickup in private-sector consumption may encourage the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish tone at the next meeting in November as it remains one of the biggest drivers of growth and inflation, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may prepare U.S. households and businesses for an imminent rate-hike as the central bank largely fulfills its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability.
BITCOIN PRICE ANLYSIS – BULLISH AWAKENING
Bitcoin is currently trading between 6.300 and 7.000 USD per Bitcoin.
Technicals suggest a test of the US$10,000 level within the next few weeks, followed by an extended consolidation period before the next bullish markup. Trend indicators on the daily timeframe have flipped from neutral to bullish, while momentum oscillators on the weekly timeframe have begun to flip from bearish to bullish. A BTC ETF decision by the SEC in the month of August was postponed to October end, and is expected that could be the catalyst needed to immediately spark price action to the US$10,000 level.